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Nairobi City Stars vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
3 – 2
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
5/26/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nairobi City Stars45%
×Draw29%
Coast Stima26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.25
Coast Stima
0.86

Nairobi City Stars creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.11
Coast Stima
0.78

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
0.95
Coast Stima
1.39

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
74%
Nairobi City Stars or Coast Stima
71%
Draw or Coast Stima
55%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
20%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
71%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
36%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
13%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
58%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
21%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
64%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
45%
level
29%
Coast Stima scores more
26%

Nairobi City Stars at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi City Stars 3–2 Coast Stima

Nairobi City Stars beat Coast Stima 3-2 in Super League on May 26, 2018.