Nairn County 1–0 Lossiemouth: Result & Stats

Nairn County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lossiemouth

3/7/2026

League #730 · Highland League - 30Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nairn County50%

×Draw23%

Lossiemouth27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairn CountyExpected goals in this matchLossiemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.27

Nairn County

1.80

Lossiemouth

1.27

Nairn County creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

0.33

2.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nairn County

1.60

Lossiemouth

0.33

allows per match

Nairn County

2.20

Lossiemouth

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairn County+0.00on par

Lossiemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairn County ↓

Lossiemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Nairn County or draw

73%

Nairn County or Lossiemouth

77%

Draw or Lossiemouth

50%

Winning margin

Nairn County wins by 2+

27%

Lossiemouth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nairn County 1+ goals

83%

Nairn County 2+ goals

54%

Nairn County 3+ goals

27%

Lossiemouth 1+ goals

72%

Lossiemouth 2+ goals

36%

Lossiemouth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nairn County (draw refunded)

65%

Lossiemouth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairn County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Lossiemouth away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairn County attack 1.60 + Lossiemouth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lossiemouth attack 0.33 + Nairn County defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nairn County scores more

50%

level

23%

Lossiemouth scores more

27%

Nairn County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nairn County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff