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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Ferencváros II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
5/19/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE48%
×Draw22%
Ferencváros II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.88
Ferencváros II
1.43

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 31% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Ferencváros II
1.76

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Ferencváros II
1.47

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Ferencváros II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
71%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Ferencváros II
78%
Draw or Ferencváros II
52%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
27%
Ferencváros II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
85%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
56%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
29%
Ferencváros II 1+ goals
76%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
42%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
62%
Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
48%
level
22%
Ferencváros II scores more
29%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagykanizsai ULE vs Ferencváros II

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Ferencváros II 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.