Nagykanizsai ULE 4–1 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Nagykanizsai ULE

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

3/3/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 18Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE73%

×Draw16%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagykanizsai ULEExpected goals in this matchDunaújváros-Pálhalma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.92

Nagykanizsai ULE

2.58

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.92

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 180% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

2.30

creates per match

0.73

1.10

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE

2.30

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.73

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.10

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw

89%

Nagykanizsai ULE or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

84%

Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

27%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+

51%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals

92%

Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals

72%

Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals

47%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals

60%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals

23%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)

86%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more

73%

level

16%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more

11%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff