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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
8/17/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 4Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE68%
×Draw18%
Csornai SE15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.44
Csornai SE
1.05

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 132% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
85%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Csornai SE
82%
Draw or Csornai SE
32%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
45%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
91%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
70%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
43%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
65%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
28%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
82%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.44

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
68%
level
18%
Csornai SE scores more
15%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagykanizsai ULE vs Csornai SE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Csornai SE 5-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.