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Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Preview
05:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
11/7/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14Toyota Stadium
Big match
46%
Nagoya Grampus
model favours
46%24%30%

92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%
×Draw24%
Kyoto Sanga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.65
Kyoto Sanga
1.29

Nagoya Grampus creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.51
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.25
Kyoto Sanga
1.79

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
70%
Nagoya Grampus or Kyoto Sanga
76%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
24%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
81%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
49%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
23%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
60%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
46%
level
24%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
30%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (92% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Nagoya Grampus
Balanced
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
50%Possession51%
77%Pass accuracy71%
12.1Shots12.8
1.59xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Nagoya GrampusKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Nagoya Grampus
5
Draws
3
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 80%
3–01–11–21–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grampus
DDLLW
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nagoya Grampus host Kyoto Sanga

November 7, 2026: Nagoya Grampus take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nagoya Grampus host Kyoto Sanga at Toyota Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.