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Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
5/10/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%
×Draw24%
Kyoto Sanga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.65
Kyoto Sanga
1.29

Nagoya Grampus creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.51
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.25
Kyoto Sanga
1.79

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
70%
Nagoya Grampus or Kyoto Sanga
76%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
24%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
81%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
49%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
23%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
60%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
46%
level
24%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
30%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

Nagoya Grampus beat Kyoto Sanga 3-0 in J1 League on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.