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Nagoya Grampus vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampusadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
9/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nagoya Grampus51%
×Draw21%
Daegu FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
2.10
Daegu FC
1.52

Nagoya Grampus creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
3.00
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
0.75
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
72%
Nagoya Grampus or Daegu FC
79%
Draw or Daegu FC
49%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
30%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
88%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
62%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
35%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
78%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
45%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
64%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 3.00 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Nagoya Grampus defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
51%
level
21%
Daegu FC scores more
28%

Nagoya Grampus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nagoya Grampus 4–2 Daegu FC

Nagoya Grampus beat Daegu FC 4-2 in AFC Champions League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota.