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Naftan vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
6/5/20211. Division1. Division · Round 8Stadyen Atlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Naftan43%
×Draw24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.64
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.39

Naftan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 62 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.60
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Naftan
1.24
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
67%
Naftan or Shakhtyor Petrikov
76%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
57%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
22%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
81%
Naftan 2+ goals
49%
Naftan 3+ goals
23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
75%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
40%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
57%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.60 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Naftan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naftan scores more
43%
level
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
33%

Naftan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naftan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftan vs Shakhtyor Petrikov

Naftan beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 2-1 in 1. Division on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Atlant in Novopolotsk.