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Naftan vs Arsenal — Premier League 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal
Arsenal
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadyen Atlant Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Naftan35%
×Draw27%
Arsenal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.22
Arsenal
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.06
Arsenal
0.85

allows per match

Naftan
1.72
Arsenal
1.37

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
62%
Naftan or Arsenal
73%
Draw or Arsenal
65%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
15%
Arsenal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
70%
Naftan 2+ goals
34%
Naftan 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal 2+ goals
37%
Arsenal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
48%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

Arsenal away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.06 + Arsenal defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Arsenal attack 0.85 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Naftan scores more
35%
level
27%
Arsenal scores more
38%

Arsenal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Aleksandr Skshynetskiy
46'
R. Myalkovskiy← A. Skshinetskiy
46'
K. Volkov← I. Oreshkevich
59'
E. Babich← D. Matyash
64'
Arseniy Ageev
76'
J. Lopago← A. Suchkov
85'
E. Shedko← E. Kress
89'
D. Nizhnik← M. Kolyadko
89'
G. Ermidis← A. Shchadin
89'
A. Litvinov← I. Pranovich
90+2'
Danila Godyaev
90+2'
G. Prigodskiy← V. Harutyunyan

Statistics

NaftanArsenal
Discipline
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Naftan vs Arsenal

Naftan and Arsenal drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Atlant Iskusstvennoe pole in Novopolotsk.