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Naftagas vs Sloven Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
9/2/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Naftagas47%
×Draw25%
Sloven Ruma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
1.61
Sloven Ruma
1.20

Naftagas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
Sloven Ruma
1.57

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
Sloven Ruma
1.30

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Sloven Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
72%
Naftagas or Sloven Ruma
75%
Draw or Sloven Ruma
53%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
24%
Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
80%
Naftagas 2+ goals
48%
Naftagas 3+ goals
22%
Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
70%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
34%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
62%
Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Naftagas scores more
47%
level
25%
Sloven Ruma scores more
28%

Naftagas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Naftagas 0–2 Sloven Ruma

Sloven Ruma beat Naftagas 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Naftagas in Elemir.