Naftagas 3–1 Radnički Zrenjanin: Result & Stats

Naftagas

FT

3 – 1

Radnički Zrenjanin

3/25/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naftagas58%

×Draw23%

Radnički Zrenjanin19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftagasExpected goals in this matchRadnički Zrenjanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.96

Naftagas

1.85

Radnički Zrenjanin

0.96

Naftagas creates 93% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 87 away

1.92

creates per match

1.08

0.83

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Naftagas

1.92

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.08

allows per match

Naftagas

0.83

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw

81%

Naftagas or Radnički Zrenjanin

77%

Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin

42%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+

34%

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals

84%

Naftagas 2+ goals

55%

Naftagas 3+ goals

28%

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

62%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

25%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)

75%

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.85

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Naftagas scores more

58%

level

23%

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

19%

Naftagas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff