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Naftagas vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
CANC
13:30
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
3/11/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Naftagas52%
×Draw24%
Radnički Sombor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
1.69
Radnički Sombor
1.06

Naftagas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 49 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
76%
Naftagas or Radnički Sombor
76%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
48%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
28%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
82%
Naftagas 2+ goals
50%
Naftagas 3+ goals
24%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
29%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
69%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Naftagas scores more
52%
level
24%
Radnički Sombor scores more
24%

Naftagas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Naftagas host Radnički Sombor

March 11, 2023: Naftagas take on Radnički Sombor in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Naftagas host Radnički Sombor at Stadion FK Naftagas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.