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Naftagas vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
8/27/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naftagas58%
×Draw23%
1. Maj Ruma19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
1.82
1. Maj Ruma
0.95

Naftagas creates 92% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
81%
Naftagas or 1. Maj Ruma
77%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
42%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
33%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
84%
Naftagas 2+ goals
54%
Naftagas 3+ goals
27%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
61%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
25%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
75%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Naftagas scores more
58%
level
23%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
19%

Naftagas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftagas vs 1. Maj Ruma

Naftagas beat 1. Maj Ruma 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Naftagas in Elemir.