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Nafta vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Nafta
Nafta
CANC
14:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
4/3/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nafta60%
×Draw21%
Šmartno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nafta
2.03
Šmartno
1.06

Nafta creates 92% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nafta
2.24
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Nafta
1.02
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nafta or draw
81%
Nafta or Šmartno
79%
Draw or Šmartno
40%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+
36%
Šmartno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals
87%
Nafta 2+ goals
60%
Nafta 3+ goals
33%
Šmartno 1+ goals
65%
Šmartno 2+ goals
29%
Šmartno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)
76%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.24 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.03

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Nafta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nafta scores more
60%
level
21%
Šmartno scores more
19%

Nafta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nafta face Šmartno (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Nafta hosting Šmartno. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.