Nafta 4–2 Mura: Result & Stats | 1. SNL

Nafta

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mura

J. Špoljarić 90+10', 72' (pen), 53' (pen), 31'

B. Proleta 90+9'

D. Vizinger 40'

4/5/2025

1. SNL · Round 28Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nafta34%

×Draw25%

Mura41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftaExpected goals in this matchMura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.47

Nafta

1.33

Mura

1.47

Mura creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 125 away

1.20

creates per match

1.14

1.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Nafta

1.20

Mura

1.14

allows per match

Nafta

1.80

Mura

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par

Mura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Mura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nafta or draw

59%

Nafta or Mura

75%

Draw or Mura

66%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+

15%

Mura wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals

74%

Nafta 2+ goals

38%

Nafta 3+ goals

15%

Mura 1+ goals

77%

Mura 2+ goals

43%

Mura 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)

46%

Mura (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

Mura away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 1.20 + Mura defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mura attack 1.14 + Nafta defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nafta scores more

34%

level

25%

Mura scores more

41%

Mura at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

J. Špoljarić

40'

D. Vizinger

46'

J. Pišek← J. Domjan

46'

A. Maroša← Ž. Petrovič

52'

A. Dragoner

53'

J. ŠpoljarićPenalty

63'

R. Murić← F. Mlinar

66'

Z. Kálnoki-Kis← D. Csóka

72'

J. ŠpoljarićPenalty

73'

H. Georgievski← L. Božičković

75'

E. Julardžija← K. Pučko

81'

N. Jovićević← A. Antolin

85'

89'

89'

89'

90+9'

90+10'

Nafta

Mura

13

Raduha

3

▼

Pučko

5

Sadriu

26

⚽

Proleta

21

▼

Petrovič

8

▼

Mlinar

30

Kurtovič

6

▼

Antolin

25

▼

Domjan

29

⚽

4

31

4

2

5

3

18

6

8

▼

Božičkovi

17

▼

Csóka

50

⚽4

Špoljarić

77

Szalay

Manager: J. Bozsik

66'▲Z. Kálnoki-Kis←▼D. Csóka

73'▲H. Georgievski←▼L. Božičković

Nafta substitutes

23Kálnoki-Kis26Georgievski10Brkić12Škrbič90Senkó20Batričević16Mutvar24Dumić19Sintič25Kljun40Jurovic98Drágoner

Manager: M. Kek

46'▲J. Pišek←▼J. Domjan

46'▲A. Maroša←▼Ž. Petrovič

63'▲R. Murić←▼F. Mlinar

75'▲E. Julardžija←▼K. Pučko

81'▲N. Jovićević←▼A. Antolin

Mura substitutes

7Pišek17Maroša9Murić10Julardžija18Jovićević2Sana15Laci28Šumenjak71Mustapić33Kumer93Decoene

1. SNL: Nafta 4–2 Mura

Nafta beat Mura 4-2 in 1. SNL on April 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Špoljarić (31', 53' pen, 72' pen), D. Vizinger (40'), B. Proleta (90+9'), J. Špoljarić 0 (90+10').

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.

Nafta vs Mura — 1. SNL 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. SNL: Nafta 4–2 Mura