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Nafta vs Krka — 2. SNL 2019

Nafta
Nafta
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Krka
Krka
7/28/20232. SNL2. SNL · Round 1Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Nafta51%
×Draw24%
Krka25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nafta
1.76
Krka
1.16

Nafta creates 52% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nafta
2.26
Krka
1.30

allows per match

Nafta
1.01
Krka
1.26

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par
Krka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Krka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nafta or draw
75%
Nafta or Krka
76%
Draw or Krka
49%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+
28%
Krka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals
83%
Nafta 2+ goals
52%
Nafta 3+ goals
26%
Krka 1+ goals
69%
Krka 2+ goals
32%
Krka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)
67%
Krka (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.01 · 81 matches

Krka away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.26 + Krka defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.76

Krka attack 1.30 + Nafta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nafta scores more
51%
level
24%
Krka scores more
25%

Nafta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nafta vs Krka

Nafta beat Krka 4-2 in 2. SNL on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.