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Nafta vs Kozarmisleny FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nafta
Nafta
FT
4 – 3
Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nafta47%
×Draw19%
Kozarmisleny FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nafta
2.47
Kozarmisleny FC
2.07

Nafta creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nafta
2.80
Kozarmisleny FC
1.64

allows per match

Nafta
2.50
Kozarmisleny FC
2.14

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par
Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 83Under: 1783%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 80No: 2080%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Kozarmisleny FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Nafta or draw
67%
Nafta or Kozarmisleny FC
81%
Draw or Kozarmisleny FC
53%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+
29%
Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals
91%
Nafta 2+ goals
70%
Nafta 3+ goals
44%
Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals
87%
Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals
61%
Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)
59%
Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

Kozarmisleny FC away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.80 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.47

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.64 + Nafta defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nafta scores more
47%
level
19%
Kozarmisleny FC scores more
33%

Nafta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Nafta
Kozarmisleny
J. Bozsik
Manager: J. Bozsik
Z. Aczél
Manager: Z. Aczél

Friendlies Clubs: Nafta 4–3 Kozarmisleny FC

Nafta beat Kozarmisleny FC 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.