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Nafta vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Nafta
Nafta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fužinar
Fužinar
4/14/20232. SNL2. SNL · Round 25Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nafta57%
×Draw21%
Fužinar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nafta
2.04
Fužinar
1.19

Nafta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

creates per match

Nafta
2.26
Fužinar
1.37

allows per match

Nafta
1.01
Fužinar
1.82

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par
Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Fužinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nafta or draw
78%
Nafta or Fužinar
79%
Draw or Fužinar
43%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+
34%
Fužinar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals
87%
Nafta 2+ goals
60%
Nafta 3+ goals
33%
Fužinar 1+ goals
70%
Fužinar 2+ goals
33%
Fužinar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)
72%
Fužinar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.01 · 81 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.26 + Fužinar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fužinar attack 1.37 + Nafta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nafta scores more
57%
level
21%
Fužinar scores more
22%

Nafta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nafta vs Fužinar

Nafta and Fužinar drew 1-1 in 2. SNL on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.