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Naft vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2025

Naft
Naft
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zakho
Zakho
R. Donfack 81'
Ahmad Khaled 45+3'
12/12/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Naft33%
×Draw33%
Zakho35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
0.90
Zakho
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Naft
0.89
Zakho
1.03

allows per match

Naft
0.82
Zakho
0.90

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft or draw
65%
Naft or Zakho
67%
Draw or Zakho
67%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
12%
Zakho wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
59%
Naft 2+ goals
23%
Naft 3+ goals
6%
Zakho 1+ goals
61%
Zakho 2+ goals
24%
Zakho 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
49%
Zakho (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.89 + Zakho defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Zakho attack 1.03 + Naft defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Naft scores more
33%
level
33%
Zakho scores more
35%

Zakho at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
Ahmad Khaled
81'
R. Donfack

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Zakho

Naft beat Zakho 2-0 in Iraqi League on December 12, 2024.

Goals: Ahmad Khaled (45+3'), R. Donfack (81').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.