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Naft vs Samarra — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samarra
Samarra
1/16/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Al Naft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Naft51%
×Draw30%
Samarra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.22
Samarra
0.60

Naft creates 103% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 13 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Samarra
0.31

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Samarra
1.46

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Samarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft or draw
82%
Naft or Samarra
70%
Draw or Samarra
49%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
23%
Samarra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
70%
Naft 2+ goals
34%
Naft 3+ goals
12%
Samarra 1+ goals
45%
Samarra 2+ goals
12%
Samarra 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
74%
Samarra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Samarra attack 0.31 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Naft scores more
51%
level
30%
Samarra scores more
18%

Naft at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naft 1 – 0 Samarra

Naft beat Samarra 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Al Naft Stadium in Basra.