Naft 2–0 Naft Al-Janoob: Result & Stats

Naft

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Al-Janoob

10/24/2024

Iraqi League · Round 4Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Naft40%

×Draw31%

Naft Al-Janoob29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Janoob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.89

Naft

1.11

Naft Al-Janoob

0.89

Naft creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

0.98

creates per match

0.88

0.90

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Naft

0.98

Naft Al-Janoob

0.88

allows per match

Naft

0.90

Naft Al-Janoob

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft+0.00on par

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Naft or draw

71%

Naft or Naft Al-Janoob

69%

Draw or Naft Al-Janoob

60%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+

17%

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals

67%

Naft 2+ goals

30%

Naft 3+ goals

10%

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

59%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

22%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)

58%

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft scores more

40%

level

31%

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

29%

Naft at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff