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Naft vs Karbala — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karbala
Karbala
5/31/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 31Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Naft44%
×Draw30%
Karbala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.19
Karbala
0.85

Naft creates 40% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 58 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Karbala
0.81

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Karbala
1.41

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Karbala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
74%
Naft or Karbala
70%
Draw or Karbala
56%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
19%
Karbala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
70%
Naft 2+ goals
33%
Naft 3+ goals
12%
Karbala 1+ goals
57%
Karbala 2+ goals
21%
Karbala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
63%
Karbala (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Karbala attack 0.81 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Naft scores more
44%
level
30%
Karbala scores more
26%

Naft at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft 1–1 Karbala

Naft and Karbala drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.