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Naft vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
10/26/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al Naft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Naft47%
×Draw29%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.29
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.83

Naft creates 55% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 22 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.77

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.59

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
76%
Naft or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
71%
Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
53%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
22%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
72%
Naft 2+ goals
37%
Naft 3+ goals
14%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
56%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
20%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
66%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Naft scores more
47%
level
29%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
24%

Naft at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Naft beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2-0 in Iraqi League on October 26, 2020.

The match was played at Al Naft Stadium in Bagdad.