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Naft vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
11/1/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Naft33%
×Draw31%
Al Talaba36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
0.97
Al Talaba
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Al Talaba
1.14

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Al Talaba
0.97

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft or draw
64%
Naft or Al Talaba
69%
Draw or Al Talaba
67%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
12%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
62%
Naft 2+ goals
25%
Naft 3+ goals
7%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
64%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
27%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
48%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Talaba attack 1.14 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft scores more
33%
level
31%
Al Talaba scores more
36%

Al Talaba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Al Talaba

Naft beat Al Talaba 2-1 in Iraqi League on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.