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Al Talaba vs Naft — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft
Naft
7/10/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 25Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Talaba42%
×Draw30%
Naft27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.15
Naft
0.86

Al Talaba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.13
Naft
0.82

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.90
Naft
1.18

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
73%
Al Talaba or Naft
70%
Draw or Naft
58%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
18%
Naft wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
11%
Naft 1+ goals
58%
Naft 2+ goals
21%
Naft 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
61%
Naft (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Naft away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.13 + Naft defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naft attack 0.82 + Al Talaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Talaba scores more
42%
level
30%
Naft scores more
27%

Al Talaba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 0–0 Naft

Al Talaba and Naft drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on July 10, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.