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Naft vs Al Simawa — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Simawa
Al Simawa
12/12/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Naft56%
×Draw26%
Al Simawa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.51
Al Simawa
0.72

Naft creates 110% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Al Simawa
0.53

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Al Simawa
2.05

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Simawa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Simawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft or draw
82%
Naft or Al Simawa
74%
Draw or Al Simawa
44%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
29%
Al Simawa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
78%
Naft 2+ goals
44%
Naft 3+ goals
19%
Al Simawa 1+ goals
51%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
16%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
76%
Al Simawa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Al Simawa away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Al Simawa defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.51

Al Simawa attack 0.53 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Naft scores more
56%
level
26%
Al Simawa scores more
18%

Naft at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft vs Al Simawa

Naft beat Al Simawa 3-1 in Iraqi League on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.