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Naft vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
Mohammad Dawood 48'
Mohanad Ali 23'
10/31/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Naft25%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
0.89
Al Shorta
1.33

Al Shorta creates 49% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft or draw
53%
Naft or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
75%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
8%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
59%
Naft 2+ goals
22%
Naft 3+ goals
6%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
74%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
38%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
35%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Naft scores more
25%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
47%

Al Shorta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Mohanad Ali
48'
Mohammad Dawood

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naft 0 – 2 Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Naft 2-0 in Iraqi League on October 31, 2024.

Goals: Mohanad Ali (23'), Mohammad Dawood (48').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.