Naft 3–2 Al Kahrabaa: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Naft

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Kahrabaa

K. Agbozo 60'

O. Afolabi 52' (pen), 43'

D. Tetteh 80'

Muhaimen Salim 45' (pen)

4/1/2024

Iraqi League · Round 20Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Naft43%

×Draw30%

Al Kahrabaa27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftExpected goals in this matchAl Kahrabaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.88

Naft

1.19

Al Kahrabaa

0.88

Naft creates 35% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

0.83

creates per match

0.94

0.81

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Naft

0.83

Al Kahrabaa

0.94

allows per match

Naft

0.81

Al Kahrabaa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft+0.00on par

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Kahrabaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw

73%

Naft or Al Kahrabaa

70%

Draw or Al Kahrabaa

57%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+

19%

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals

70%

Naft 2+ goals

33%

Naft 3+ goals

12%

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

59%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

22%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)

61%

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.83 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Kahrabaa attack 0.94 + Naft defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft scores more

43%

level

30%

Al Kahrabaa scores more

27%

Naft at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

O. Afolabi

45'

Muhaimen SalimPenalty

52'

O. AfolabiPenalty

60'

K. Agbozo

80'

D. Tetteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff