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Naft Maysan vs Samarra — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Samarra
Samarra
10/26/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Naft Maysan48%
×Draw30%
Samarra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.25
Samarra
0.75

Naft Maysan creates 67% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 13 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Samarra
0.31

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Samarra
1.46

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Samarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
78%
Naft Maysan or Samarra
70%
Draw or Samarra
52%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
22%
Samarra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
71%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
36%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
13%
Samarra 1+ goals
53%
Samarra 2+ goals
17%
Samarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
68%
Samarra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Samarra attack 0.31 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
48%
level
30%
Samarra scores more
22%

Naft Maysan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 2–1 Samarra

Naft Maysan beat Samarra 2-1 in Iraqi League on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.