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Naft Maysan vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
B. Okor 70'
Yaseen Samia 58'
Amjad Radhi 82'
10/20/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Naft Maysan36%
×Draw28%
Erbil35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.17
Erbil
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
65%
Naft Maysan or Erbil
72%
Draw or Erbil
64%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
15%
Erbil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
69%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
33%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%
Erbil 1+ goals
68%
Erbil 2+ goals
32%
Erbil 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
51%
Erbil (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Erbil attack 1.11 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
36%
level
28%
Erbil scores more
35%

Naft Maysan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
Yaseen Samia
70'
B. Okor
82'
Amjad Radhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Erbil

Naft Maysan beat Erbil 2-1 in Iraqi League on October 20, 2022.

Goals: Yaseen Samia (58'), B. Okor (70'), Amjad Radhi (82').

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.