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Erbil vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
S. Temirov 55'
12/31/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Erbil43%
×Draw26%
Naft Maysan31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.45
Naft Maysan
1.17

Erbil creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 45 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.36
Naft Maysan
1.18

allows per match

Erbil
1.15
Naft Maysan
1.53

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
69%
Erbil or Naft Maysan
74%
Draw or Naft Maysan
57%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
21%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
77%
Erbil 2+ goals
42%
Erbil 3+ goals
18%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
69%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
33%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
59%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.36 + Naft Maysan defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Naft Maysan attack 1.18 + Erbil defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erbil scores more
43%
level
26%
Naft Maysan scores more
31%

Erbil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
H. Kazem
55'
S. Temirov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Erbil 1–0 Naft Maysan

Erbil beat Naft Maysan 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 31, 2025.

Goals: S. Temirov (55').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Arbil.