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Naft Maysan vs Al Zawra'a — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
Rabia Al Alawi 47'
I. Gbadamosi 15'
5/13/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Maysan27%
×Draw28%
Al Zawra'a45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
0.94
Al Zawra'a
1.29

Al Zawra'a creates 37% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.13
Al Zawra'a
1.24

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.33
Al Zawra'a
0.76

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
55%
Naft Maysan or Al Zawra'a
72%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
73%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
10%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
61%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
24%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
7%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
72%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
37%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
38%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.13 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al Zawra'a attack 1.24 + Naft Maysan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
27%
level
28%
Al Zawra'a scores more
45%

Al Zawra'a at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
I. Gbadamosi
47'
Rabia Al Alawi
67'
H. F. Kadhim
67'
H. F. Kadhim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 0–2 Al Zawra'a

Al Zawra'a beat Naft Maysan 2-0 in Iraqi League on May 13, 2025.

Goals: I. Gbadamosi (15'), Rabia Al Alawi (47').

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.