Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naft Maysan vs Al Zawra'a — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
2/5/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 15Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Naft Maysan27%
×Draw30%
Al Zawra'a43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
0.86
Al Zawra'a
1.17

Al Zawra'a creates 36% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Al Zawra'a
1.15

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Al Zawra'a
0.69

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
57%
Naft Maysan or Al Zawra'a
70%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
73%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
9%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
58%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
21%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
6%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
69%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
33%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
39%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Zawra'a attack 1.15 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
27%
level
30%
Al Zawra'a scores more
43%

Al Zawra'a at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 1–3 Al Zawra'a

Al Zawra'a beat Naft Maysan 3-1 in Iraqi League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.