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Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2023

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
Mohammad Jawad 58'
5/18/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 29Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Naft Maysan29%
×Draw29%
Al Talaba42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
0.97
Al Talaba
1.21

Al Talaba creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.05
Al Talaba
1.23

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.18
Al Talaba
0.89

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
58%
Naft Maysan or Al Talaba
71%
Draw or Al Talaba
71%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
11%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
62%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
25%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
7%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
70%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
34%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
41%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 56 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.05 + Al Talaba defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Talaba attack 1.23 + Naft Maysan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
29%
level
29%
Al Talaba scores more
42%

Al Talaba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
Mohammad Jawad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba

Al Talaba beat Naft Maysan 1-0 in Iraqi League on May 18, 2024.

Goals: Mohammad Jawad (58').

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.