Naft Maysan 0–3 Al Shorta: Result & Stats

Naft Maysan

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Al Shorta

7/15/2023

Iraqi League · Round 37Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Naft Maysan23%

×Draw26%

Al Shorta50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft MaysanExpected goals in this matchAl Shorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.48

Naft Maysan

0.92

Al Shorta

1.48

Al Shorta creates 61% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

1.04

creates per match

1.76

1.19

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Naft Maysan

1.04

Al Shorta

1.76

allows per match

Naft Maysan

1.19

Al Shorta

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Shorta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw

50%

Naft Maysan or Al Shorta

74%

Draw or Al Shorta

77%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

8%

Al Shorta wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

60%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

23%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

7%

Al Shorta 1+ goals

77%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

43%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

32%

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Naft Maysan scores more

23%

level

26%

Al Shorta scores more

50%

Al Shorta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff