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Al Shorta vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
Mahmoud Al Mawas 83'
Mohanad Ali 66'
Sajjad Jasim 44'
Alaa Saad 90+9' (pen)
D. Diémé 55' (pen)
Sajjad Jabar 20'
1/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Shorta53%
×Draw24%
Naft Maysan23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.71
Naft Maysan
1.02

Al Shorta creates 68% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.80
Naft Maysan
1.23

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.80
Naft Maysan
1.63

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
77%
Al Shorta or Naft Maysan
76%
Draw or Naft Maysan
47%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
29%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
82%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
51%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
24%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
64%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
27%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
70%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.80 + Naft Maysan defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Naft Maysan attack 1.23 + Al Shorta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Shorta scores more
53%
level
24%
Naft Maysan scores more
23%

Al Shorta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Sajjad Jabar
44'
Sajjad Jasim
52'
Y. H. Al Tekreeti M.
52'
Y. H. Al Tekreeti M.
55'
D. DiéméPenalty
66'
Mohanad Ali
83'
Mahmoud Al Mawas
90+7'
S. C. Banga
90+7'
S. C. Banga
90+15'
M. Salam
90+9'
Alaa SaadPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shorta vs Naft Maysan

Al Shorta and Naft Maysan drew 3-3 in Iraqi League on January 14, 2025.

Goals: Sajjad Jabar (20'), Sajjad Jasim (44'), D. Diémé (55' pen), Mohanad Ali (66'), Mahmoud Al Mawas (83'), Alaa Saad (90+9' pen).

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.