Naft Maysan 0–2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Naft Maysan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

M. Jawad 90'

R. Hanoon 84'

5/28/2026

Iraqi League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Naft Maysan30%

×Draw28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft MaysanExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.27

Naft Maysan

1.03

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.27

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.16

creates per match

1.21

1.32

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Naft Maysan

1.16

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.21

allows per match

Naft Maysan

1.32

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw

58%

Naft Maysan or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

70%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

11%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

64%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

28%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

9%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

72%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

36%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

42%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.16 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.21 + Naft Maysan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Maysan scores more

30%

level

28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

42%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'

R. Hanoon

90'

M. Jawad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff