Naft Maysan 3–2 Al-Karma: Result & Stats

Naft Maysan

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Al-Karma

D. Diémé 45+5'

O. Afolabi 43'

Alaa Saad 27' (pen)

Alaa Al Dali 45+3'

Mohammad Mazhar 38'

2/20/2025

Iraqi League · Round 21Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Naft Maysan31%

×Draw28%

Al-Karma41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft MaysanExpected goals in this matchAl-Karma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.25

Naft Maysan

1.05

Al-Karma

1.25

Al-Karma creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 32 away

1.07

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Naft Maysan

1.07

Al-Karma

1.22

allows per match

Naft Maysan

1.29

Al-Karma

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al-Karma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw

59%

Naft Maysan or Al-Karma

72%

Draw or Al-Karma

69%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

12%

Al-Karma wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

65%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

28%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

9%

Al-Karma 1+ goals

71%

Al-Karma 2+ goals

36%

Al-Karma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

43%

Al-Karma (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.07 + Al-Karma defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al-Karma attack 1.22 + Naft Maysan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Maysan scores more

31%

level

28%

Al-Karma scores more

41%

Al-Karma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Alaa SaadPenalty

38'

43'

45+3'

45+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff