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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
7/27/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 1Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman29%
×Draw30%
Tractor Sazi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.90
Tractor Sazi
1.15

Tractor Sazi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 115 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Tractor Sazi
1.17

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Tractor Sazi
0.94

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
59%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Tractor Sazi
70%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
71%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
10%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
59%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
23%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
6%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
68%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
32%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
41%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Tractor Sazi attack 1.17 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
29%
level
30%
Tractor Sazi scores more
41%

Tractor Sazi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Tractor Sazi

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Tractor Sazi drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 27, 2018.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman).