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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shahrdari Noshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Noshahr
Shahrdari Noshahr
1/30/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman49%
×Draw31%
Shahrdari Noshahr20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.18
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.63

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 87% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.29
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.54

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71
Shahrdari Noshahr
1.06

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Shahrdari Noshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
80%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Shahrdari Noshahr
69%
Draw or Shahrdari Noshahr
51%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
22%
Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
69%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
12%
Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals
47%
Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals
13%
Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
71%
Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Shahrdari Noshahr away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 0.54 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
49%
level
31%
Shahrdari Noshahr scores more
20%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–0 Shahrdari Noshahr

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Shahrdari Noshahr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 30, 2025.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.