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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
5/3/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 28Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman43%
×Draw30%
Sepidrood Rasht28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.19
Sepidrood Rasht
0.90

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 32% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
72%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Sepidrood Rasht
70%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
57%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
18%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
70%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
12%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
59%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
23%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
61%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
43%
level
30%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
28%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Sepidrood Rasht

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Sepidrood Rasht drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman).