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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Mes Kerman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
8/12/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 1Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman42%
×Draw33%
Mes Kerman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.02
Mes Kerman
0.73

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 40% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Mes Kerman
0.33

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Mes Kerman
1.20

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
74%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Mes Kerman
67%
Draw or Mes Kerman
58%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
16%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
64%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
27%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
8%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
52%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
17%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
62%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Mes Kerman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mes Kerman attack 0.33 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
42%
level
33%
Mes Kerman scores more
26%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Mes Kerman

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Mes Kerman 3-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.