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Mes Kerman vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1/20/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mes Kerman45%
×Draw29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.23
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.86

Mes Kerman creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.20
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Mes Kerman
1.27
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
74%
Mes Kerman or Naft Masjed Soleyman
71%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
55%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
20%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
71%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
35%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
13%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
58%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
21%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
63%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.20 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Mes Kerman defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
45%
level
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
26%

Mes Kerman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Kerman 2–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Mes Kerman beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 20, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.