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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
5/16/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman41%
×Draw30%
Machine Sazi FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Machine Sazi FC
0.89

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 27% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
71%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Machine Sazi FC
70%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
59%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
17%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
68%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
31%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
11%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
59%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
22%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
59%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
41%
level
30%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–0 Machine Sazi FC

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Machine Sazi FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.