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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
10/2/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman61%
×Draw25%
Khalij Fars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.56
Khalij Fars
0.59

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 164% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.29
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
86%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Khalij Fars
75%
Draw or Khalij Fars
39%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
33%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
79%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
46%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
21%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
45%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
12%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
81%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
61%
level
25%
Khalij Fars scores more
14%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Khalij Fars

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Khalij Fars drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.