Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 59+ matches
Naft Masjed Soleyman31%
Gol Gohar38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gol Gohar creates 13% more chances
Season form · 59 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓
Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches
Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.92 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92
Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Gol Gohar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Naft Masjed Soleyman host Gol Gohar on Monday, 10 August 2020 at 16:00. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Persian Gulf Pro League: Naft Masjed Soleyman 2–3 Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 3-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 10, 2020.
Goals: A. Mahmoud Abadi (2'), S. Sadeghi Baba Ahmadi (15'), H. Ebrahimi (27'), B. Barzay (65', 80').
The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.