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Gol Gohar vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
3/12/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Gol Gohar50%
×Draw29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.27
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71

Gol Gohar creates 79% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 74 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
79%
Gol Gohar or Naft Masjed Soleyman
71%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
50%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
23%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
72%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
36%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
14%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
51%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
16%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
71%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
50%
level
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
21%

Gol Gohar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Gol Gohar 4–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Gol Gohar beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 4-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex in Sirjan.