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Naft Gachsaran vs Shahin Bandar Ameri — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
3/27/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Naft Gachsaran38%
×Draw32%
Shahin Bandar Ameri30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
1.03
Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.87

Naft Gachsaran creates 18% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 10 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.00

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.20

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Shahin Bandar Ameri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
70%
Naft Gachsaran or Shahin Bandar Ameri
68%
Draw or Shahin Bandar Ameri
62%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
15%
Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
64%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
28%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
9%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
58%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
22%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
56%
Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 1.00 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
38%
level
32%
Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
30%

Naft Gachsaran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Shahin Bandar Ameri

Naft Gachsaran beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.