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Naft Gachsaran vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
3/11/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran39%
×Draw33%
Pars Jonoubi JAM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.99
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.81

Naft Gachsaran creates 22% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 100 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
71%
Naft Gachsaran or Pars Jonoubi JAM
67%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
61%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
15%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
63%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
26%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
8%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
56%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
57%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
39%
level
33%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
29%

Naft Gachsaran at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Naft Gachsaran and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.